SEARCH BLOG: CLIMATE

If an increased frequency of extreme temperature records are an indicator of a warming trend... as I have quoted that several times from those who advocate the theory of man-made global warming¹ ... then take a look at the decadal frequency of those statewide, monthly records in the animation below.

As explained in previous posts, each state can have only 12 statewide, monthly records for the 13 decades tracked here... hence, they are "all-time" records for a state for a month.

[Note: this animation 1960 data was corrected on 1/31/09]


Range goes from 0 [white] to 8 [dark red]. Indiana had the highest frequency of records in one decade with 8 still standing from the 1930s. See the table below for the actual count by decade. Old records are replaced if tied or surpassed by subsequent readings.

The 1930s experienced the highest number of maximum extreme temperatures for which records have not been tied or surpassed subsequently. While the late 1990s did have a very brief hot period associated with El Nino, the 1990s were a rather ordinary period for extreme temperatures in the contiguous 48 states.

I have excluded Alaska and Hawaii from this animation because they are distinct and separate climate zones. For the record, however, Alaska's decade of most frequent high temperature records was the 1970s with 4. Hawaii's decade of most records was the 1910s. Those data are included in the table below.

1. Do a similar analysis for the 1880 - 2008 period for the rest of the world... insofar as any reliable data may exist.
   
2. Re-examine the notion that the 1880s is a reasonable starting point for establishing a meaningful trend because it appears to have been abnormally cool.

Many others have questioned the failure of global warming computer models to fit past data, database "adjustments" to bias the temperature trend upward, and the impact of poorly sited weather stations as they relate to global warming claims, so it is not necessary to go over those issues here.

¹ [An example] "These new peaks do not in themselves prove global warming, say scientists - but global warming makes them much more likely. "As you get a warming trend in temperatures, which is what we are observing, the risk of exceeding extreme temperatures increases dramatically," said Peter Stott of the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research." [quoted in The Independent; 19 July 2006]

It would indeed be very interesting to see a similar analysis for the rest of the world. But thanks for the effort on US numbers!

Perhaps some of the climate "think tanks" in Europe could take that on for Europe. An equivalent to the U.S. analysis would be to take all-time monthly high temperatures from each country going back through a similar timeline.

I understand that each state will have a total of 12 across the decades. But why does Alabama have a total of 14 and Wyoming has 27 in one decade?

Alan,

Great catch. The data behind the summaries were correct, but the summation of the 1960s were pointing to incorrect data points.

I will correct an republish the information. I greatly appreciate the double check. It does not change the basic premise, but certain explains why I thought the 1960s seemed cooler than the data indicated.

Has a similar study been done for minimum temperature records? How do the number of minimum and maximum temperatures compare, by decade and by state?

I have not yet done the consolidation of the minimum records by decade. The overall graphs comparing frequency of max/min records by year are show here:

Monday, January 19, 2009
Where Is The Global Warming... Extreme Temperature Records Update January 2009

http://hallofrecord.blogspot.com/2009/01/where-is-global-warming-extreme_19.html

There is less variability in the frequency of minimum records than maxiumum records. This decade there has been an absence of minimum records; however, one or two minimum records [depending on NWS interpretation] may have been set in January 2009.

Anthony Watts has pointed out some issues with regard to bias toward high temperature measurement at his website: http://wattsupwiththat.com/

These include:
1. incorrect siting of recording stations next to heat sources
2. recent rapid loss of rural sites where colder temperatures are normally recorded

Even with the bias toward warmer stations, there has been an absence of high temperature records and, apparently, new minimum records.

oh come on, you know full well that the lack of record high temps in this decade is due to the increased humidity levels from the warmer temps keeping the max temps down - it takes a lot to heat up all that water in the atmosphere. That and the increased cloud cover from all that moisture.

You simply cannot win with the global warming crowd since they have any answer to everything - even colder temps being a 'consequence' of the system 'out of balance.' Isn't ALL weather the result of the system being out of balance?

The analogy I like the best is having the Earth as a pot of water at room temperature. Global warming is the burner on the stove. We put the pot on the stove and turn up the heat and expect the water in the middle of the pot [furthest away from the conduction] to freeze when we add heat.

As for the checksum - I am not understanding the methodology. Places admitted to the Union since 1880 should have 365 record highs during that period since each state HAD a record high during that period. And, using the methodology, there are 13 decades, so the checksum should be 13 not 12.

The "checksum" is to ensure that there are only 12 monthly, "all-time" records for any one state. They can occur in any of the 13 decades, but since there are only twelve months, there can only be 12 records.

Hope that helps.

Nice work! I once did a compilation of daily record highs and lows for Peoria, IL and found that 91 of the high temperature records occurred in the 1930's. The next closest decade was the 1890's with 42 and the 1980's with 39. The current decade has been relatively low with either record highs or lows.

logically, it would seem that once records are being kept, it becomes more rare to see "records" as the years go by, simply because of variability; that there are fewer such records in later years is thus in part because those records were set earlier, in a year when average temps could have been warmer or cooler

I refer you to this explanation of why that is absolutely NOT the case!

http://hallofrecord.blogspot.com/2009/01/do-extreme-records-favor-earlier-events.html